I was slightly amused to hear that the Russians are predicting the demise of the United States once again. For a decade, Russian professor Igor Panarin has been predicting that the United States will fall apart in 2010. Needless to say, since we are now in 2009, that argument is now getting more attention, from the Russia state media. You know, the propaganda machine. According to the Wall Street Journal, Panarin has been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. Funny, aren’t the Russians facing serious economic problems too? Of course, why should they allow the world to focus on their problems? This new diversion is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which has had an icy relationship with Washington D.C., blaming the U.S. for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin’s views fit ever so neatly with their narrative that Russia is somehow returning to its place as the leader on the world stage. Hah! That’s a laughable notion.
Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations. A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
“There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says. “One could rejoice in that process,” he adds, poker-faced. “But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario — for Russia.” Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces — with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin’s ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country’s top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin’s English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today. Source: The Wall Street Journal
So just how is this going to affect the United States as we know it? In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia. Source: The Wall Street Journal
Of course the White House declined to comment on this ridiculous prophecy. People predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall, but I scarcely believe Prof. Panarin’s doomsday prophecy will be fulfilled. This is nothing but some balderdash.
Filed under: Atlantic Republic, California Republic, Central North American Republic, End of the U.S., Four Republics, Professor Igor Panarin, Russia, Texas Republic
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